Would You Rather

[VictimEyes]

Here's the scenario.
You are enjoying an absolutely amazing Amazon River cruise.
After a sumptuous feast of a lunch, you take your drink out onto the bow to take in the sights and sounds of the jungle.

You are then suddenly deafened by a loud, forceful explosion that propels you overboard by 100 ft. or so.
After a moment or so in the water, you regain consciousness and control of your faculties and look back to see the boat completely engulfed in flames and collapsing piece by burning piece into the murky water.

No other survivors visible.

- Maybe they were able to broadcast a distress call before they met their end. - Maybe they weren't.
Maybe a rescue effort is enroute. - Maybe it isn't.

After treading water for what seems like an eternity, fatigue sets in and you will surely succumb and drown if you do not swim to one side of the river or the other.

Here's the problem:
Between you and the North bank is a school of Piranha.
Only a 10% chance they will attack. However, if they do attack - 100% chance the attack will be fatal. Nothing will remain but your fleshless skeleton.

Between you and the South bank is a Cayman alligator.
A big one. From the tip of his nose to the tip his tail he's about 20 ft. long. Your eyes meet his and it's clear he's been watching you for a while.
There is a 100% chance he will attack. However, only a 10% the attack will be fatal; he doesn't want to kill or consume any part of you- he just wants you to stay out his jungle.

Tell me, my esteemed schoolmates, which riverbank do you swim to?

[Vela Nanashi]

In this particular case the survival chance is better if you do not get injured even slightly, as without antibiotics even a tiny cut could make you sick and die slowly. So gater 10% fatality I assume you always get somewhat injured from the attack. While the fishies leave you entirely unscathed 90% of the time. So I would likely pick the fish

[Neighbor]

In real life, I suppose, the autistic like me would be asking, "How accurate are the estimates? Is there a current east or west?"

If we are to assume this is theoretical, and we are to accept the estimates, then Vela's answer is good as any.

[VictimEyes]

Firstly, let me express my gratitude to the both of you for responding to my first effort here at the academy Dining Hall!!!!

But, for purposes of clarity - 10% chance the gator attack is fatal even after exposure to infectious microbes and toxic gator saliva.

The probabilities are certified beyond reproach - 10%/100%
- by the way, I got your PM. The site will not allow me to respond.

[Claire]

@VictimEyes You should have no issues responding to a PM. What do you mean the site won't let you? Got any error message?

Regarding the question: Unless I'm misunderstanding/miscalculating something, the chance to die is 10% in either case. However, in case of the piranhas, I will survive unharmed in the 90% that they don't attack. The alligator will in 90% of cases not kill me, but nevertheless attack and hurt me. So based on this the decision is simple.

Piranhas: 10% lethal injury, 0% non-lethal injury, 90% no injury
Alligator: 10% lethal injury, 90% non-lethal injury, 0% no injury

I prefer the piranhas.

[Blue]

I also choose the piranhas.
If they catch me, I'll be dead either way—and probably pretty quickly.

If the alligator attacks me, I won't die immediately, but my chances of survival in the middle of the jungle with an injury caused by an alligator bite are also close to 0%. And death would certainly be more painful and take longer.

So, I'm taking a total risk and jumping into the piranha swarm.

[joey]

If Luca Brasi can swim with the fishes, the piranhas are good enough for me! Seriously though, a 90% chance of uninjured survival sounds pretty good to me. So in the proverbial New York heartbeat I'm heading for the fish.

[Shocker]

I’d go piranha as well, at heart I’m a coward, when death comes I’d prefer it to be quick and certain.

[VictimEyes]

Thank you everybody for responding!!

[LaLia]

Even if I'm being a smartass, the initial situation is already wrong.

In fact, there are hardly any documented attacks by piranhas, and as long as they don't go into a feeding frenzy, their reputation is worse than it actually is. On the other hand, there are several documented attacks by crocodiles every year, and there are some regions where they even actively attack humans in order to eat them.

So, realistically speaking, it's definitely the piranhas, because the crocodile it is a 50% chance of attacking you and a 100% chance of killing you.